Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 5

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 082031
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 29.8W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 90SE 90SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 29.8W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 29.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 12.8N 31.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.9N 32.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 15.2N 33.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.4N 34.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 18.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 33.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 29.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE