Hurricane Fred

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 110847
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2009

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 35.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 35.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.9N 35.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 18.0N 34.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.2N 34.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N 42.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 22.5N 47.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 35.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE