Hurricane Ida

Forecast Advisory 19

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 081757
TCMAT1
HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1800 UTC SUN NOV 08 2009

AT 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. A
HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN AND FROM
CABO CATOCHE WESTWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 86.1W AT 08/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 86.1W AT 08/1800Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.8N 87.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...135NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.6N 88.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 75SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 28.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 87.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 90SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.0N 81.0W...EXTRATROPICAL OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 86.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

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FORECASTER BEVEN