Hurricane Paula

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 112031
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
2100 UTC MON OCT 11 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...INCLUDING
COZUMEL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA GRUESA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...
INCLUDING COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT IN THE WARNING AREA IN HONDURAS...AND THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN MEXICO
WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 85NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.3N 86.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 85NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.6N 86.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 75SW 95NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.0N 86.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE 105SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE 105SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 19.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN