Hurricane Paula

Forecast Advisory 9

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 131445
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1500 UTC WED OCT 13 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 85.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 85.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.6N 84.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.5N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 22.1N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA