Hurricane Paula

Forecast Advisory 13

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 141435
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1500 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 84.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 84.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 84.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.1N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.0N 80.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 84.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA