Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 7

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 302200
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2200 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 61.6W AT 30/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 61.6W AT 30/2200Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.0N 63.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 35SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.2N 69.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.7N 72.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 61.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN