Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 012039
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC MON NOV 01 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 69.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 69.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 69.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.4N 71.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.3N 74.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.1N 75.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 69.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI