Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 18

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 021451
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1500 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 72.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 72.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN