Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 30

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 051441
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1500 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI
BORDER EASTWARD TO BARAHONA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 74.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 73.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.1N 72.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.1N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.0N 69.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 27.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 29.0N 62.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 74.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

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FORECASTER BEVEN