Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 31

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 052034
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC FRI NOV 05 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AND HOLGUIN. THE GOVERNMENT
OF CUBA HAS ALSO CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING IN GUANTANAMO TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO BARAHONA
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 73.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 73.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 74.0W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 72.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.9N 71.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 24.8N 70.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.4N 69.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 26.5N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 27.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 73.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

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FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN