Tropical Storm Arlene

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 291443
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
1500 UTC WED JUN 29 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM TUXPAN
NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM TUXPAN NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 95.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 95.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 96.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.2N 97.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.0N 98.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.8N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 95.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

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FORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN