Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 15

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054
WTNT24 KNHC 240256
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 40.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 72.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA