Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 17

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531
WTNT24 KNHC 241438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1500 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

INTERESTS IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 73.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 73.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 25SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 120SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN