Hurricane Maria

Forecast Advisory 20

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521
WTNT25 KNHC 111437
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
1500 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 96.8W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 96.8W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 96.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 96.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





361
WTNT24 KNHC 111449
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1500 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 64.6W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......175NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 30SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 64.6W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.1N 65.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.1N 66.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.9N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.9N 69.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.5N 69.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 45SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 45.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 64.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN