Hurricane Maria

Forecast Advisory 21

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162
WTNT25 KNHC 112032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
2100 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 97.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 97.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 98.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 97.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





168
WTNT24 KNHC 112036
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
2100 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 65.2W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......175NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 65.2W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.6N 66.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...175NE 100SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.7N 67.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.8N 68.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 24.2N 69.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.3N 69.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 45SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 49.5N 51.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 65.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN