Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 40

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794
WTNT22 KNHC 021442
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 51.7W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 51.7W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 51.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.5N 53.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.3N 55.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.2N 57.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.3N 59.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 32.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





476
WTNT21 KNHC 021444
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 60.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 27 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.7N 60.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 61.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 42.4N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.4N 53.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 120SE 100SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 200SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 49.6N 43.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.7N 60.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN