Hurricane Philippe

Forecast Advisory 4

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164
WTNT21 KNHC 250237
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 58.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 58.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.9N 59.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.6N 62.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.3N 63.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 24.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





843
WTNT22 KNHC 250254
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
0300 UTC SUN SEP 25 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 28.8W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 28.8W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 28.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.1N 30.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.1N 32.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.1N 34.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.4N 35.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 28.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG