Hurricane Philippe

Forecast Advisory 31

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600
WTNT22 KNHC 012031
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
2100 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 49.1W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 49.1W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 48.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.9N 52.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.8N 54.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.7N 57.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 26.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 32.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





998
WTNT21 KNHC 012032
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
2100 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 62.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT.......150NE 160SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 62.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 62.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 40.0N 60.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 48.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 50.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA