Hurricane Rina

Forecast Advisory 10

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685
WTNT23 KNHC 252044
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
2100 UTC TUE OCT 25 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 50SE 45SW 35NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 84.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 84.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N 85.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 86.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.4N 86.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.8N 86.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 55SW 55NW.
34 KT...105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 84.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN