Hurricane Rina

Forecast Advisory 16

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996
WTNT23 KNHC 270241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
0300 UTC THU OCT 27 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 55SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 86.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 86.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.2N 86.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 87.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 86.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 86.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA