Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 4

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099
WTNT25 KNHC 021430
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 54.3W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 54.3W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 53.4W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.4N 56.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.8N 60.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 66.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.7N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 54.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH