Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 8

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268
WTNT25 KNHC 031446
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC FRI AUG 03 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY THE
APPROPRIATE GOVERNMENTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 62.3W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 62.3W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 61.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.0N 71.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 18.5N 83.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

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FORECASTER AVILA