Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 11

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552
WTNT21 KNHC 040839
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
0900 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 29.1W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 29.1W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 28.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.9N 30.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.5N 32.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.0N 35.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.2N 37.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.7N 43.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 17.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 19.0N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 29.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





639
WTNT25 KNHC 040839
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 67.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 66.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N 69.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N 73.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 79.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 90.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 67.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN