Hurricane Ernesto
Forecast Advisory 19
813
WTNT21 KNHC 060831
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 38.8W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 38.8W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 38.2W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.3N 41.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.6N 44.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.2N 47.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.1N 51.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 58.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 64.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 38.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
711
WTNT25 KNHC 060836
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 80.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 80.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 80.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N 82.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N 84.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 86.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.7N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.7N 92.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 80.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
898
WTNT25 KNHC 060838
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2012
CORRECTED INITIAL MOTION FROM 280 TO 275 DEGREES
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO TULUM.
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 80.5W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 80.5W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 80.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N 82.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N 84.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.1N 86.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.7N 88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.7N 92.2W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 80.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
