Hurricane Ernesto
Forecast Advisory 28
694
WTNT25 KNHC 080926
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2012
CORRECTED TO ADD 64-KT WIND RADII AT 36 HOUR FORECAST POINT
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE
NAUTLA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO
TUXPAN HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS
BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO TULUM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTH OF TULUM HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO COATZACOALCOS
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF
MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO COATZACOALCOS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO
* NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA TO TUXPAN MEXICO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 89.0W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 89.0W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 88.3W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.1N 90.9W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 93.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.1N 95.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.8N 96.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.5N 99.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 89.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
