Hurricane Kirk

Forecast Advisory 10

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019
WTNT22 KNHC 310240
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 46.8W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 46.8W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.7N 51.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.9N 54.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 56.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 22.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 29.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 46.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





482
WTNT21 KNHC 310243
TCMAT1

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 50.7W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 50.7W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 30.5N 50.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.0N 50.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.8N 47.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.7N 44.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 46.2N 34.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 52.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 50.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN