Hurricane Leslie

Forecast Advisory 41

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086
WTNT22 KNHC 091431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 62.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 240SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 62.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 33.6N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.3N 60.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 40SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 40.2N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 46.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 160SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 58.0N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 62.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...MERGED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 62.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





048
WTNT23 KNHC 091445
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.2W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 160SE 130SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 43.2W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 33.8N 43.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 34.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 35.1N 47.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 38.1N 47.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 46.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN