Hurricane Michael

Forecast Advisory 33

---

326
WTNT22 KNHC 110848
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR...TO TRITON

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 56.4W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 150SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 180SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 320SE 380SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 56.4W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.0N 57.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 51.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 57.5N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 480SE 480SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 61.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 480SE 480SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 63.5N 25.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...180NE 240SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT...240NE 420SE 480SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 61.5N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...240NE 420SE 480SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.7N 56.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





839
WTNT23 KNHC 110850
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 47.7W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 47.7W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 47.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 40.2N 46.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 45.1N 43.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 50.9N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 47.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI