Hurricane Rafael
Forecast Advisory 4
411
WTNT21 KNHC 131430
TCMAT1
REMNANTS OF PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
REMNANTS OF PATTY LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 72.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 72.0W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 72.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PATTY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
565
WTNT22 KNHC 131437
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR MARTINIQUE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 64.1W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 64.1W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 63.9W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 17.4N 64.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.2N 65.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.0N 66.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.6N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 28.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 38.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 64.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
