Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 5

---

588
WTNT22 KNHC 132036
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 63.3W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 63.3W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.9N 64.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.6N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.4N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 50.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 63.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN