Hurricane Sandy

Forecast Advisory 4

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885
WTNT24 KNHC 230848
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 51.5W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 51.5W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 51.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.3N 50.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.6N 49.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 28.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.6N 38.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 36.4N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 51.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





985
WTNT23 KNHC 230852
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
JAMAICA...AND HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.6W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 80SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 78.6W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 78.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.6N 77.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.6N 77.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.6N 77.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 26.8N 74.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 30.0N 71.5W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 78.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN