Hurricane Sandy

Forecast Advisory 12

---

262
WTNT23 KNHC 250834
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0900 UTC THU OCT 25 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 75.8W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 75.8W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.1N 75.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.4N 76.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.8N 76.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 90SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.1N 76.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 160SE 140SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 31.2N 73.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 180SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 34.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 37.5N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 75.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





095
WTNT24 KNHC 250844
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM TONY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
0900 UTC THU OCT 25 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 38.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 38.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 39.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N 31.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.4N 29.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.4N 27.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 37.0N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 38.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS