Hurricane Ingrid

Forecast Advisory 11

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869
WTNT25 KNHC 150241
TCMAT5

HURRICANE INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM NORTH OF
LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING NORTHWARD FROM BAHIA ALGODONES TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO
* SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 95.0W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 94.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.4N 95.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.7N 98.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N 99.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 95.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN