Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 11

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650
WTNT21 KNHC 031452
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

INTERESTS IN NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.5W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.5W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 78.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.8N 77.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.3N 74.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 39.4N 70.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 42.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 48.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 210SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 55.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 60.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN