Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 12

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597
WTNT21 KNHC 032053
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NANTUCKET ISLAND
AND FOR CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NOVA
SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD TO POINT ACONI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO POINT
ACONI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN EXPANSION OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE STORM...WOULD BRING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NOVA
SCOTIA...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.9W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 160SE 130SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.9W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.3N 76.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.2N 72.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 41.9N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 160SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.2N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 50.4N 56.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 56.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 60.0N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 77.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN