Hurricane Fay

Forecast Advisory 1



197
WTNT22 KNHC 101441
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 65.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.4N 64.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 62.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 63.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN




197
WTNT22 KNHC 101441
TCMAT2

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
1500 UTC FRI OCT 10 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 63.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.1N 64.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 65.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.4N 64.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 62.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 63.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN