Hurricane Fay
Forecast Advisory 11
225
WTNT23 KNHC 122031
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 61.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 65.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 66.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.6N 68.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 59.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
226
WTNT22 KNHC 122031
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 61.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 200SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 190SE 150SW 190NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 60.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
225
WTNT23 KNHC 122031
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 61.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 65.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 66.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.6N 68.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 59.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
226
WTNT22 KNHC 122031
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 61.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 200SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 190SE 150SW 190NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 60.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
225
WTNT23 KNHC 122031
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DESIRADE
* LES SAINTES
* MARIE GALANTE
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTIN
* SABA
* ST. EUSTATIUS
* BARBUDA
* ANTIGUA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. KITTS
* NEVIS
* MONTSERRAT
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 61.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 65.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 66.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.6N 68.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 59.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
226
WTNT22 KNHC 122031
TCMAT2
HURRICANE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014
2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 61.9W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...150NE 190SE 200SW 240NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 190SE 150SW 190NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 60.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
