Tropical Storm Julia

Forecast Advisory 19

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450
WTNT22 KNHC 181453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.4W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 30SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.4W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 42.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.2N 45.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 48.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.3N 50.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N 53.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.3N 58.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.7N 63.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 27.3N 66.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 43.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





812
WTNT21 KNHC 181455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
1500 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JULIA.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 32.5N 77.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.4N 77.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.8N 77.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.2N 77.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.5N 77.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 77.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART