Tropical Storm Karl

Forecast Advisory 7

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475
WTNT21 KNHC 160231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.2N 76.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 32.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 77.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





443
WTNT25 KNHC 160252
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016
0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 44.4W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 43 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 44.4W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 48.0N 38.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 53.3N 31.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 240SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 58.9N 23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...360NE 420SE 240SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 63.3N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...420NE 360SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 44.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





052
WTNT22 KNHC 160255
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 32.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 32.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 31.9W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.0N 37.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.8N 39.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 42.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.1N 47.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 0SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.8N 52.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 32.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





194
WTNT25 KNHC 160257 CCA
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15...CORERCTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016
0300 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND MOTION

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 44.9W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 46 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 44.9W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 47.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.9N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 53.3N 31.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 240SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...300NE 360SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 58.9N 23.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...360NE 420SE 240SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 63.3N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...420NE 360SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.9N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART