Hurricane Otto

Forecast Advisory 1

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291
WTNT21 KNHC 210843
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
0900 UTC MON NOV 21 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND THE ISLANDS OF SAN
ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.4W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.4W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.4N 79.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.4N 79.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.4N 79.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 11.3N 80.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.3N 82.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 11.3N 84.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 11.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 79.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART