Hurricane Otto

Forecast Advisory 5

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149
WTNT21 KNHC 220244
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OTTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016
0300 UTC TUE NOV 22 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLAND OF SAN ANDRES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PROVIDENCIA ISLAND
SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 79.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 79.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 10.8N 79.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 10.9N 79.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 11.1N 80.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.3N 81.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.3N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 11.3N 87.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 10.8N 90.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN