Hurricane Irma

Forecast Advisory 17

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086
WTNT21 KNHC 031449
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRMA. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 48.4W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 150SE 150SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 48.4W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 47.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 50.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 52.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 54.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N 56.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 61.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 20.4N 67.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 48.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN