Hurricane Irma

Forecast Advisory 45

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620
WTNT22 KNHC 100847
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

THESE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 64.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.2N 66.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.2N 67.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 68.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.3N 67.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 24.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD/BLAKE





197
WTNT21 KNHC 100858
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
0900 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ISLANDS OF BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET
* NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INDIAN
PASS
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...MATANZAS...AND LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 81.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......190NE 170SE 140SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 81.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N 82.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.8N 82.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 50NW.
34 KT...290NE 210SE 140SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.7N 85.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.5N 89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 37.5N 88.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 81.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN