Hurricane Jose

Forecast Advisory 1

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513
WTNT21 KNHC 051444
TCMAT1

HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING
THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGAO TO ISLA SAONA
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. IN THIS CASE...FOR SOME OF EASTERNMOST ISLANDS...THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS
WELL AS CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 135SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 58.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 57.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





977
WTNT22 KNHC 051454
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE FUTURE PROGRESS
OF JOSE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 39.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 39.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 38.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.8N 40.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.4N 43.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.9N 46.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.4N 49.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 39.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA