Hurricane Jose

Forecast Advisory 17

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231
WTNT22 KNHC 091506
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIUGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANTIGUA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA AND ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 120SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 61.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.9N 64.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.1N 68.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.0N 68.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 67.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 25.7N 66.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 61.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/COHEN