Hurricane Jose
Forecast Advisory 57
862
WTNT25 KNHC 191447
TCMAT5
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ANGUILLA
* MARTINIQUE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA
* ISLA SAONA TO PUERTO PLATA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 63.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 62.7W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.0N 64.1W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 65.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.8N 67.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.6N 68.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 21.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 63.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
556
WTNT22 KNHC 191456
TCMAT2
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM NEW HAVEN TO
WATCH HILL.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WATCH HILL TO HULL
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO PORT JEFFERSON
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 71.7W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 130NW.
34 KT.......270NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 71.7W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 71.6W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.8N 70.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 0SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 80SE 90SW 130NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.1N 69.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 39.9N 68.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 39.9N 67.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 160SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.2N 66.9W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 140SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 38.7N 67.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 71.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
