Hurricane Maria

Forecast Advisory 30

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397
WTNT24 KNHC 231439
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017
1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 49.4W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 49.4W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 49.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 32.2N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.3N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.9N 47.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.3N 46.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.5N 45.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 29.9N 45.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 30.5N 47.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





223
WTNT25 KNHC 231453
TCMAT5

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.3W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.3W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.7N 72.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.3N 73.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 32.1N 73.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 33.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 34.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG