Hurricane Nate

Forecast Advisory 1

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729
WTNT21 KNHC 041438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
BORDER WITH NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 81.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE