Hurricane Nate

Forecast Advisory 2

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361
WTNT21 KNHC 042049
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 82.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.6N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.7N 84.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE